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Lonza Full-Year Estimates \| Analyst Coverage

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	FY 19	FY 2020 E
	Actual	Low	Mean	High	# Est.
Group (in CHF mn)
Sales	5,920	6,164	6,288	6,410	15
Growth at CER (in %)	7.3	5.7	6.9	7.7	11
CORE EBITDA	1,620	1,673	1,732	1,774	15
CORE EBITDA Margin, in %	27.4	26.6	27.6	27.8	15
CORE EBIT	1,245	1,277	1,328	1,395	14
CORE EBIT Margin, in %	21.0	20.5	21.1	21.8	14
CORE net income	1,017	976	1,024	1,070	14
CORE EPS diluted (in CHF)	14	13	14	14	14
EPS reported diluted (in CHF)	8.65	10.40	11.20	11.93	14
Dividend (in CHF)	2.75	2.75	3.05	4.00	14
Operating Cash Flow	986.00	870.50	1,335.66	1,814.00	13
Capex (excluding acquisitions)	786	627	800	865	15


	FY 20 E	FY 2021 E
	Mean	Low	Mean	High	# Est.
Group (in CHF mn)
Sales	6,288	6,608	6,761	6,923	14
Growth at CER (in %)	6.9	6.3	7.6	10.8	14
CORE EBITDA	1,732	1,858	1,947	2,038	14
CORE EBITDA Margin, in %	27.6	27.6	28.8	29.4	14
CORE EBIT	1,328	1,407	1,511	1,617	14
CORE EBIT Margin, in %	21.1	21.3	22.4	23.4	14
CORE net income	1,024	1,098	1,177	1,265	13
CORE EPS diluted (in CHF)	14	15	16	17	13
EPS reported diluted (in CHF)	11.20	12.70	13.40	14.82	13
Dividend (in CHF)	3.05	2.75	3.41	4.50	13
Operating Cash Flow	1,335.66	1,165.06	1,517.18	1,874.00	12
Capex (excluding acquisitions)	800	602	687	820	14


	FY 21 E	FY 2022 E
	Mean	Low	Mean	High	# Est.
Group (in CHF mn)
Sales	6,761	7,079	7,268	7,535	14
Growth at CER (in %)	7.6	6.0	7.5	8.9	14
CORE EBITDA	1,947	2,078	2,192	2,326	14
CORE EBITDA Margin, in %	28.8	28.7	30.2	31.1	14
CORE EBIT	1,511	1,670	1,726	1,853	14
CORE EBIT Margin, in %	22.4	23.0	23.8	24.8	14
CORE net income	1,177	1,298	1,358	1,466	13
CORE EPS diluted (in CHF)	16	17	18	20	13
EPS reported diluted (in CHF)	13.40	14.67	15.90	17.51	13
Dividend (in CHF)	3.41	2.75	3.94	5.10	12
Operating Cash Flow	1,517.18	1,336.81	1,738.96	2,132.00	12
Capex (excluding acquisitions)	687	625	701	812	14

Please note that we only considered estimates updated after FY 2019 results (January 21)
CORE Definition Lonza believes that disclosing CORE results of the Group´s performance enhances the financial markets´ understanding of our company because the CORE results enable better comparison across years. Therefore, the CORE results exclude exceptional items such as restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs, environmental-remediation costs, impairments and amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, which can differ significantly from year to year. For this same reason, Lonza uses these CORE results in addition to IFRS as important factors in internally assessing the Group´s performance.

Last update on 04/02/2020 The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures: AlphaValue, Baader Helvea, Bank Vontobel, Berenberg Bank, BoA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Janney Montgomery Scott, Jefferies, Kepler Cheuvreux, MainFirst Bank, Mirabaud Securities, Morgan Stanley, New Street Research, Octavian, UBS, ZKB Zürcher Kantonalbank
Disclaimer This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.

Lonza Group AG - Lonza Estimates