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Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
negative: 4, neutral:6, positive:8
(total:18)
-1
+10.22
BrokerPrice Targets (in Euro)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 38.00 37.00 2.7% -16.2% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-11-06 
Autonomous Research 50.00 50.00 0.0% 10.2% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2017-11-09 
Barclays 49.00 49.00 0.0% 8.0% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2017-10-25 
BoA Merrill Lynch 49.00 Buy 2017-10-10 
Citigroup 44.00 44.00 0.0% -3.0% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-10-27 
Credit Suisse 42.00 42.00 0.0% -7.4% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-10-23 
Danske Markets 46.00 47.00 -2.1% 1.4% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-11-02 
Deutsche Bank 49.00 49.00 0.0% 8.0% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-10-04 
DNB Markets 46.00 46.00 0.0% 1.4% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-11-02 
Handelsbanken 58.00 57.00 1.8% 27.8% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-11-09 
HSBC 48.30 48.30 0.0% 6.5% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-10-03 
Inderes 47.00 47.00 0.0% 3.6% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2017-11-03 
J.P. Morgan Cazenove 50.00 50.00 0.0% 10.2% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-10-01 
Mediobanca 47.00 46.30 1.5% 3.6% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-11-02 
Morgan Stanley 50.50 11.3% Overweight 2017-11-10 
Nordea Markets 51.00 50.00 2.0% 12.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-11-03 
OP Corporate Bank 47.00 46.00 2.2% 3.6% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-11-07 
RBC Capital Markets 41.00 41.00 0.0% -9.6% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-10-05 
SEB Enskilda 40.75 42.40 -3.9% -10.2% Sell Sell Unchanged 2017-11-06 
UBS 44.00 Neutral 2017-10-25 
 CurrentPreviousChangeRecommendationsCurrentPreviousChanges 
Price (in Euro)  (as of last trading day) 45.37     Number of Analysts 18 19     
Number of Analysts 18 19   - thereof positive Upgraded: 0 Analysts 
- Highest 58.00 57.00 1.8% - in % 44.4% 42.1%     
- Consensus 46.92 46.58 0.7% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 17 Analysts 
- Median 47.00 47.00 0.0% - in % 33.3% 36.8%     
- Lowest 38.00 37.00 2.7% - thereof negative Downgraded: 0 Analysts 
        - in % 22% 21.1%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in Euro)
PT Consensus
Share price
Recommendations (in %)
Positive (left hand scale)
Neutral (left hand scale)
Negative (left hand scale)
General Data, Price Targets, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in Euro m) 25,353        
Pre tax profit reported, CAGR (16-19) 1.8%        
EPS basic (in Euro) CAGR (16-19) 0.1%        
Performance YTD 6.8%        
 
Key metrics2015 A2016 A2017 E2018 E2019 E
Combined ratio 85.4% 84.4% 85.9% 85.9% 86.0%    
ROE 17.3% 15.1% 38.2% 28.5% 27.1%    
P/E 12.1 13.2 11.3 14.7 15.3    
NAV/Share 23.8 24.9 26.1 26.4 26.9    
Div. yield 6.0% 5.9% 5.4% 5.6% 5.9%    
 
Consensus estimates (in Euro m)2016 AQ4 2017 E2017 EChange YoY in %2018 EChange YoY in %2019 EChange YoY in %
Pre tax profit reported 1,871 468 2,514 34.4% 2,028 -19.3% 1,976 -2.5% 
Profit (loss) for the financial period 1,650 394 2,252 36.5% 1,722 -23.5% 1,672 -2.9% 
EPS basic (in Euro) 2.95 0.70 4.03 36.5% 3.08 -23.6% 2.96 -3.8% 
DPS (in Euro) 2.30 2.46 6.8% 2.56 4.2% 2.67 4.4% 
 
 
Annual and Quarterly Estimates Development
 
FY 2017 Consensus Estimates (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit reported (right hand scale)
Quarterly Development (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit reported (right hand scale)
Last update on 15/11/2017
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, Autonomous Research, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Danske Markets, Deutsche Bank, DNB Markets, Handelsbanken, HSBC, Inderes, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Mediobanca, Morgan Stanley, Nordea Markets, OP Corporate Bank, RBC Capital Markets, SEB Enskilda
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.