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Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
negative: 3, neutral:8, positive:5
(total:16)
-1
+10.13
BrokerPrice Targets (in Euro)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 36.00 34.00 5.9% -6.5% Underweight Underperform Unchanged 2017-01-05 
ABG Sundal Collier 48.00 46.00 4.3% 24.7% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-01-31 
Autonomous Research 45.00 45.00 0.0% 16.9% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2017-02-01 
Barclays 48.50 26.0% Overweight 2017-01-31 
Berenberg Bank 40.70 40.70 0.0% 5.7% Buy Buy Unchanged 2016-11-07 
Citigroup 41.00 6.5% Neutral 2017-01-17 
Credit Suisse 37.00 -3.9% Underperform 2017-01-31 
Danske Markets 44.00 Hold 2016-11-03 
Deutsche Bank 40.00 40.00 0.0% 3.9% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-01-30 
DNB Markets 44.00 42.00 4.8% 14.3% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-01-05 
Evli Bank 45.00 Accumulate 2016-11-04 
Exane BNP Paribas 41.00 6.5% Equalweight 2016-12-01 
Goldman Sachs 43.00 43.00 0.0% 11.7% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-01-30 
Handelsbanken 52.00 Buy 2016-11-21 
HSBC 44.00 Buy 2016-11-07 
Inderes 44.00 44.00 0.0% 14.3% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2017-02-01 
Mediobanca 37.90 Underperform 2016-11-21 
Pohjola Bank 44.00 44.00 0.0% 14.3% Hold Accumulate Downgrade 2017-01-31 
RBC Capital Markets 34.00 33.00 3.0% -11.7% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-01-30 
SEB Enskilda 44.00 44.00 0.0% 14.3% Hold Hold Unchanged 2016-11-04 
UBS 40.50 37.50 8.0% 5.2% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-01-31 
 CurrentPreviousChangeRecommendationsCurrentPreviousChanges 
Price (in Euro)  (as of last trading day) 38.49     Number of Analysts 16 17     
Number of Analysts 16 17   - thereof positive Upgraded: 0 Analysts 
- Highest 48.50 52.00 -6.7% - in % 31.3% 47.1%     
- Consensus 41.92 42.12 -0.5% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 11 Analysts 
- Median 42.00 44.00 -4.5% - in % 50.0% 35.3%     
- Lowest 34.00 33.00 3.0% - thereof negative Downgraded: 1 Analysts 
        - in % 19% 17.6%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in Euro)
PT Consensus
Share price
Recommendations (in %)
Positive (left hand scale)
Neutral (left hand scale)
Negative (left hand scale)
General Data, Price Targets, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in Euro m) 21,508        
Pre tax profit, CAGR (15-18) -2.3%        
EPS basic (in Euro) CAGR (15-18) -2.1%        
Performance YTD -0.9%        
 
Key metrics2014 A2015 A2016 E2017 E2018 E
Combined ratio 87.7% 85.4% 85.2% 86.6% 86.6%    
ROE 16.1% 15.2% 28.4% 26.3% 26.8%    
P/E 13.0 13.1 13.5 14.4 13.9    
NAV/Share 22.6 23.8 23.0 23.2 23.4    
Div. yield 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.2% 6.4%    
 
Consensus estimates (in Euro m)2015 AQ4 2016 E2016 EChange YoY in %2017 EChange YoY in %2018 EChange YoY in %
Pre tax profit 1,888 474 1,817 -3.7% 1,708 -6.0% 1,762 3.2% 
Profit (loss) for the financial period 1,656 420 1,599 -3.4% 1,500 -6.2% 1,553 3.5% 
EPS basic (in Euro) 2.96 0.75 2.86 -3.5% 2.68 -6.2% 2.77 3.5% 
DPS (in Euro) 2.15 2.26 5.0% 2.37 5.0% 2.45 3.4% 
 
 
Annual and Quarterly Estimates Development
 
FY 2016 Consensus Estimates (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Quarterly Development (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Last update on 01/02/2017
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, ABG Sundal Collier, Autonomous Research, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, DNB Markets, Exane BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, Inderes, Pohjola Bank, RBC Capital Markets, SEB Enskilda, UBS
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.