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Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
negative: 4, neutral:7, positive:8
(total:19)
-1
+10.21
BrokerPrice Targets (in Euro)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 37.00 36.00 2.8% -15.4% Underperform Underweight Unchanged 2017-02-28 
ABG Sundal Collier 47.00 48.00 -2.1% 7.5% Hold Buy Downgrade 2017-02-08 
Autonomous Research 45.00 45.00 0.0% 3.0% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2017-02-27 
Barclays 48.50 48.50 0.0% 11.0% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2017-02-16 
Berenberg Bank 46.80 40.70 15.0% 7.1% Buy Buy Unchanged 2017-02-09 
Citigroup 42.00 41.00 2.4% -3.9% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-02-20 
Credit Suisse 40.00 37.00 8.1% -8.5% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-02-09 
Danske Markets 46.50 6.4% Hold 2017-02-09 
Deutsche Bank 40.00 Hold 2017-01-30 
DNB Markets 44.00 44.00 0.0% 0.7% Hold Hold Unchanged 2017-02-09 
Exane BNP Paribas 41.00 Equalweight 2016-12-01 
Goldman Sachs 45.00 43.00 4.7% 3.0% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-02-24 
HSBC 46.90 7.3% Buy 2017-02-09 
Inderes 46.00 44.00 4.5% 5.2% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2017-02-24 
J.P. Morgan Cazenove 46.40 6.2% Neutral 2017-02-15 
Mediobanca 42.20 -3.5% Underperform 2017-02-09 
Nordea Markets 50.00 14.4% Buy 2017-02-09 
Pohjola Bank 46.00 44.00 4.5% 5.2% Accumulate Hold Upgrade 2017-02-09 
RBC Capital Markets 34.00 34.00 0.0% -22.2% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2017-01-30 
SEB Enskilda 47.00 44.00 6.8% 7.5% Buy Hold Upgrade 2017-02-08 
UBS 40.50 40.50 0.0% -7.3% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2017-01-31 
 CurrentPreviousChangeRecommendationsCurrentPreviousChanges 
Price (in Euro)  (as of last trading day) 43.71     Number of Analysts 19 16     
Number of Analysts 19 16   - thereof positive Upgraded: 2 Analysts 
- Highest 50.00 48.50 3.1% - in % 42.1% 31.3%     
- Consensus 44.25 41.92 5.6% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 11 Analysts 
- Median 46.00 42.00 9.5% - in % 36.8% 50.0%     
- Lowest 34.00 34.00 0.0% - thereof negative Downgraded: 1 Analysts 
        - in % 21% 18.8%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in Euro)
PT Consensus
Share price
Recommendations (in %)
Positive (left hand scale)
Neutral (left hand scale)
Negative (left hand scale)
General Data, Price Targets, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in Euro m) 24,425        
Pre tax profit, CAGR (16-19) -0.5%        
EPS basic (in Euro) CAGR (16-19) -2.4%        
Performance YTD 12.6%        
 
Key metrics2015 A2016 A2017 E2018 E2019 E
Combined ratio 85.4% 84.4% 86.4% 86.6% 86.6%    
ROE 17.3% 15.1% 26.7% 27.3% 27.4%    
P/E 12.1 13.2 16.6 16.1 15.9    
NAV/Share 23.8 24.9 24.5 24.9 25.4    
Div. yield 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0%    
 
Consensus estimates (in Euro m)2016 AQ1 2017 E2017 EChange YoY in %2018 EChange YoY in %2019 EChange YoY in %
Pre tax profit 1,871 417 1,740 -7.0% 1,795 3.1% 1,845 2.8% 
Profit (loss) for the financial period 1,650 368 1,528 -7.4% 1,580 3.4% 1,626 2.9% 
EPS basic (in Euro) 2.95 0.66 2.63 -10.9% 2.72 3.4% 2.75 1.1% 
DPS (in Euro) 2.30 2.40 4.6% 2.51 4.2% 2.62 4.5% 
 
 
Annual and Quarterly Estimates Development
 
FY 2017 Consensus Estimates (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Quarterly Development (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Last update on 28/02/2017
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, ABG Sundal Collier, Autonomous Research, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Danske Markets, DNB Markets, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Inderes, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Mediobanca, Nordea Markets, Pohjola Bank, RBC Capital Markets, SEB Enskilda, UBS
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.