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Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
negative: 3, neutral:7, positive:8
(total:18)
-1
+10.28
BrokerPrice Targets (in Euro)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 34.00 -11.7% Underweight 2016-10-28 
ABG Sundal Collier 46.00 45.00 2.2% 19.5% Buy Buy Unchanged 2016-10-20 
Autonomous Research 45.00 41.50 8.4% 16.9% Outperform Neutral Upgrade 2016-10-26 
Barclays 44.50 44.50 0.0% 15.6% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2016-10-26 
Berenberg Bank 40.70 40.70 0.0% 5.7% Buy Buy Unchanged 2016-08-11 
Citigroup 37.00 37.00 0.0% -3.9% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2016-10-25 
Credit Suisse 36.00 Underperform 2016-08-23 
Danske Markets 42.40 41.00 3.4% 10.2% Hold Hold Unchanged 2016-10-31 
Deutsche Bank 38.00 -1.3% Hold 2016-10-25 
DNB Markets 42.00 40.00 5.0% 9.1% Hold Hold Unchanged 2016-10-26 
Evli Bank 43.00 Accumulate 2016-08-11 
Goldman Sachs 43.00 43.00 0.0% 11.7% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2016-10-26 
Handelsbanken 51.00 49.00 4.1% 32.5% Buy Buy Unchanged 2016-10-28 
HSBC 43.20 47.20 -8.5% 12.2% Buy Buy Unchanged 2016-10-26 
Inderes 43.00 43.00 0.0% 11.7% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2016-10-29 
Mediobanca 38.90 38.90 0.0% 1.1% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2016-10-28 
Nordea Markets 44.00 Buy 2016-08-11 
Pohjola Bank 44.00 44.00 0.0% 14.3% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2016-10-26 
RBC Capital Markets 33.00 -14.3% Underperform 2016-10-24 
SEB Enskilda 44.00 42.50 3.5% 14.3% Hold Buy Downgrade 2016-10-28 
UBS 37.50 -2.6% Neutral 2016-10-21 
 CurrentPreviousChangeRecommendationsCurrentPreviousChanges 
Price (in Euro)  (as of last trading day) 38.49     Number of Analysts 18 17     
Number of Analysts 18 17   - thereof positive 10 Upgraded: 1 Analysts 
- Highest 51.00 49.00 4.1% - in % 44.4% 58.8%     
- Consensus 41.51 42.37 -2.0% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 12 Analysts 
- Median 42.70 43.00 -0.7% - in % 38.9% 29.4%     
- Lowest 33.00 36.00 -8.3% - thereof negative Downgraded: 1 Analysts 
        - in % 17% 11.8%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in Euro)
PT Consensus
Share price
Recommendations (in %)
Positive (left hand scale)
Neutral (left hand scale)
Negative (left hand scale)
General Data, Price Targets, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in Euro m) 21,508        
Pre tax profit, CAGR (15-18) -1.9%        
EPS basic (in Euro) CAGR (15-18) -1.9%        
Performance YTD -0.9%        
 
Key metrics2014 A2015 A2016 E2017 E2018 E
Combined ratio 87.7% 85.4% 85.2% 86.6% 86.6%    
ROE 16.1% 15.2% 27.4% 26.7% 27.1%    
P/E 13.0 13.1 14.1 14.2 13.7    
NAV/Share 22.6 23.8 21.7 22.0 22.0    
Div. yield 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.2% 6.4%    
 
Consensus estimates (in Euro m)2015 AQ3 2016 E2016 EChange YoY in %2017 EChange YoY in %2018 EChange YoY in %
Pre tax profit 1,888 456 1,747 -7.5% 1,731 -0.9% 1,781 2.9% 
Profit (loss) for the financial period 1,656 399 1,531 -7.5% 1,519 -0.8% 1,566 3.1% 
EPS basic (in Euro) 2.96 0.71 2.73 -7.6% 2.71 -0.8% 2.80 3.1% 
DPS (in Euro) 2.15 2.26 5.1% 2.37 4.6% 2.47 4.5% 
 
 
Annual and Quarterly Estimates Development
 
FY 2016 Consensus Estimates (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Quarterly Development (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit (right hand scale)
Last update on 31/10/2016
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, ABG Sundal Collier, Autonomous Research, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, Citigroup, Danske Markets, Deutsche Bank, DNB Markets, Goldman Sachs, Handelsbanken, HSBC, Inderes, Mediobanca, Pohjola Bank, RBC Capital Markets, SEB Enskilda, UBS
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.