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Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
negative: 2, neutral:4, positive:9
(total:15)
-1
+10.47
BrokerPrice Targets (in Euro)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 40.00 40.00 0.0% -6.6% Underperform Underperform Unchanged 2018-05-17 
Autonomous Research 48.50 52.00 -6.7% 13.2% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-05-13 
Barclays 49.00 48.50 1.0% 14.4% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2018-05-16 
Berenberg Bank 52.60 22.8% Buy 2018-05-16 
BoA Merrill Lynch 50.50 50.50 0.0% 17.9% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-07 
Citigroup 42.00 -1.9% Neutral 2018-05-11 
Credit Suisse 48.00 Neutral 2018-02-19 
Danske Markets 45.70 46.10 -0.9% 6.7% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-05-10 
Deutsche Bank 50.00 Buy 2018-04-26 
DNB Markets 46.00 47.00 -2.1% 7.4% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-05-09 
Handelsbanken 58.00 58.00 0.0% 35.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-05-10 
HSBC 49.20 49.20 0.0% 14.9% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-04-26 
Inderes 48.00 48.00 0.0% 12.1% Accumulate Accumulate Unchanged 2018-04-30 
J.P. Morgan Cazenove 50.00 Underweight 2018-04-23 
Mediobanca 45.30 47.30 -4.2% 5.8% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-05-17 
Nordea Markets 53.00 53.00 0.0% 23.7% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-05-11 
OP Corporate Bank 48.00 49.00 -2.0% 12.1% Accumulate Hold Upgrade 2018-05-14 
SEB Enskilda 34.50 34.10 1.2% -19.4% Sell Sell Unchanged 2018-05-10 
UBS 46.00 Neutral 2018-05-02 
 CurrentPreviousChangeRecommendationsCurrentPreviousChanges 
Price (in Euro)  (as of last trading day) 42.83     Number of Analysts 15 17     
Number of Analysts 15 17   - thereof positive Upgraded: 1 Analysts 
- Highest 58.00 58.00 0.0% - in % 60.0% 47.1%     
- Consensus 47.35 48.04 -1.4% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 12 Analysts 
- Median 48.00 48.50 -1.0% - in % 26.7% 35.3%     
- Lowest 34.50 34.10 1.2% - thereof negative Downgraded: 0 Analysts 
        - in % 13% 17.6%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in Euro)
PT Consensus
Share price
Recommendations (in %)
Positive (left hand scale)
Neutral (left hand scale)
Negative (left hand scale)
General Data, Price Targets, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in Euro m) 23,736        
Pre tax profit reported, CAGR (17-20) -6.7%        
EPS basic (in Euro) CAGR (17-20) -8.7%        
Performance YTD -6.0%        
 
Key metrics2016 A2017 A2018 E2019 E2020 E
Combined ratio 84.4% 85.3% 85.5% 85.6% 85.7%    
ROE 17.3 20.3 31.6% 29.2% 30.3%    
P/E 12.1 9.8 13.6 14.7 14.2    
NAV/Share 24.9 25.4 24.6 25.0 25.4    
Div. yield 6.4% 6.7% 6.4% 6.7% 7.0%    
 
Consensus estimates (in Euro m)2017 AQ2 2018 E2018 EChange YoY in %2019 EChange YoY in %2020 EChange YoY in %
Pre tax profit reported 2,482 669 2,111 -14.9% 1,950 -7.6% 2,015 3.3% 
Profit (loss) for the financial period, after non-controlling interests 2,216 555 1,738 -21.6% 1,614 -7.2% 1,672 3.6% 
EPS basic (in Euro) 3.96 1.00 3.14 -20.8% 2.91 -7.2% 3.02 3.6% 
DPS (in Euro) 2.60 2.75 5.6% 2.88 4.7% 3.00 4.3% 
 
 
Annual and Quarterly Estimates Development
 
FY 2018 Consensus Estimates (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period, after non-controlling interests (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit reported (right hand scale)
Quarterly Development (in Euro m)
Profit (loss) for the financial period, after non-controlling interests (left hand scale)
Pre tax profit reported (right hand scale)
Last update on 24/05/2018
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, Autonomous Research, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, BoA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Danske Markets, DNB Markets, Handelsbanken, HSBC, Inderes, Mediobanca, Nordea Markets, OP Corporate Bank, SEB Enskilda
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.