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Last update 01/10/2018 (Consensus ahead of press release as of 16th of October 2018 publishing preliminary Q3 key figures)

1. The current consensus displays estimates on a reported basis (including the effect from the US tax reform, VA association and natural disaster costs).
2. The estimates also include the announced sale of Sound Inpatient Physicians Holdings.
 
Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
Negative: 0, Neutral: 13, Positive: 11 (Total: 24)
-1
+10.46
BrokerPrice Targets (in EUR)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 107.00 107.00 0.0% 51.1% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-08-07 
Bankhaus Lampe 88.00 88.00 0.0% 24.3% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-07-18 
Barclays 87.20 90.00 -3.1% 23.2% Equalweight Equalweight Unchanged 2018-07-23 
Berenberg Bank 100.80 100.80 0.0% 42.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-09-27 
BoA Merrill Lynch 102.00 102.00 0.0% 44.1% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-07-12 
Bryan, Garnier & Co. 92.00 92.00 0.0% 29.9% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-07-20 
Commerzbank 80.00 82.00 -2.4% 13.0% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-08-03 
Credit Suisse 91.00 96.00 -5.2% 28.5% Neutral Outperform Downgrade 2018-07-04 
Deutsche Bank 106.00 103.00 2.9% 49.7% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-08-01 
DZ Bank 98.00 98.00 0.0% 38.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-08-06 
Exane BNP Paribas 86.00 80.00 7.5% 21.5% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-08-03 
Goldman Sachs 98.00 97.00 1.0% 38.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-09-26 
HSBC 107.00 85.00 25.9% 51.1% Buy Hold Upgrade 2018-08-28 
Independent Research 88.00 Hold 2017-08-07 
J.P. Morgan Cazenove 96.10 95.60 0.5% 35.7% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2018-04-23 
Jefferies 82.00 84.00 -1.2% 15.8% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-09-25 
Kepler Cheuvreux 100.00 100.00 0.0% 41.2% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-07-20 
LBBW 90.00 102.00 -11.8% 27.1% Hold Buy Downgrade 2018-08-06 
MainFirst Bank 93.00 88.00 5.7% 31.4% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-04-21 
Morgan Stanley 93.00 93.00 0.0% 31.4% Equalweight Equalweight Unchanged 2018-07-12 
Oddo BHF 96.00 96.00 0.0% 35.6% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-07-23 
RBC Capital Markets 89.00 89.00 0.0% 25.7% Sector Perform Sector Perform Unchanged 2018-07-11 
Redburn 90.00 Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-07-20 
Société Générale 87.00 87.00 0.0% 22.9% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-04-24 
SunTrust Banks 101.00 Buy 2018-04-23 
UBS 87.00 87.00 0.0% 22.9% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-07-16 
Warburg Research 85.00 Hold 2017-02-13 
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideRecommendationsCurrentChanges 
Price (in EUR)  (as of last trading day) 70.80       Number of Analysts 24     
Number of Analysts 23 27     - thereof positive 11 Upgraded: 1 Analysts 
- Highest 107.00 107.00 0.0% 51.1% - in % 45.8%     
- Consensus 93.74 92.83 1.0% 32.4% - thereof neutral 13 Unchanged: 21 Analysts 
- Median 93.00 92.00 1.1% 31.4% - in % 54.2%     
- Lowest 80.00 80.00 0.0% 13.0% - thereof negative Downgraded: 2 Analysts 
          - in % 0.0%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in EUR)
Price Targets (in EUR)
Share Price (in EUR)
Recommendations (in %)
Positive
Neutral
Negative
General Data, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in EUR m) 21,707        
Enterprise value (in EUR m) 28,288        
Equity ratio 2017 42.5%        
Sales, CAGR (17-20) 2.4%        
EPS CAGR (17-20) 8.5%        
Performance YTD (in %) -19.3        
 
 2017 AQ3 2018 E2018 EChange YoY in %2019 EChange YoY in %2020 EChange YoY in %
Consensus estimates (in EUR m)                 
Sales 17,784 16,820 -5.4% 17,701 5.2% 19,072 7.7% 
EBIT 2,362 3,192 35.1% 2,652 -16.9% 2,874 8.4% 
EBIT margin 13.3% 19.0% 15.0% 15.1% 
EPS (in EUR) 4.17 6.37 52.8% 4.87 -23.5% 5.32 9.2% 
Dividend per share (in EUR) 1.06 1.10 3.8% 1.25 13.6% 1.38 10.4% 
Valuation                
P/E 20.2  11.1 14.5 13.3 
EV/Sales 1.8  1.7 1.6 1.5 
EV/EBIT 13.7  8.9 10.7 9.8 
P/B 2.4  1.7 
Dividend yield 1.3%  1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 
        
 
 
Last update on 02/10/2018 (Consensus ahead of press release as of 16th of October 2018 publishing preliminary Q3 key figures)
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, Bankhaus Lampe, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, BoA Merrill Lynch, Bryan, Garnier & Co., Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, DZ Bank, Exane BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Jefferies, Kepler Cheuvreux, LBBW, MainFirst Bank, Morgan Stanley, Oddo BHF, RBC Capital Markets, Redburn, Société Générale, UBS
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.