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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 07/01/2019
 RangeQ4 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 9,613 11,262 11,176 11,462 
  - Lowest 9,134 9,215 8,535 9,792 
  - Highest 10,237 15,000 16,200 14,500 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 11 11 
              
Upstream - Consensus 7,223 8,836 9,056 8,419 
  - Lowest 6,431 6,604 5,792 5,577 
  - Highest 8,076 11,630 13,576 11,787 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 11 11 
              
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 7,157 7,905 9,691 10,290 
  - Lowest 6,813 6,600 7,000 7,900 
  - Highest 7,783 9,362 20,047 18,449 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 12 12 
              
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 4,830 5,561 7,331 7,842 
  - Lowest 4,483 4,300 4,700 5,600 
  - Highest 5,353 6,704 16,847 15,169 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 10 10 
              
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 2,336 2,401 2,502 2,757 
  - Lowest 2,249 2,137 1,813 1,975 
  - Highest 2,431 2,893 3,199 3,570 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 10 10 
              
Operating Income - Consensus 23,987 28,045 29,822 29,941 
  - Lowest 23,122 24,209 23,819 24,505 
  - Highest 25,253 33,000 39,057 36,490 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 12 12 
              
Corporate - Consensus -1,548 -1,172 -1,246 -1,176 
  - Lowest -1,637 -1,800 -1,827 -2,014 
  - Highest -1,298 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 10 10 
              
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -540 -529 -528 -550 
  - Lowest -600 -600 -673 -685 
  - Highest -505 -400 -400 -400 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 10 10 
              
CCS earnings - Consensus 21,929 25,726 26,959 28,293 
  - Lowest 20,991 22,824 21,975 22,425 
  - Highest 23,543 32,446 36,731 33,976 
  - Number of analysts participating 19 17 17 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (million shares) - Consensus 8,296 8,101 7,848 7,461 
  - Lowest 8,146 7,829 7,521 7,206 
  - Highest 8,376 8,471 8,605 7,808 
  - Number of analysts participating 18 17 17 
              
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 2.65 3.16 3.45 3.80 
  - Lowest 2.52 2.76 2.82 3.01 
  - Highest 2.89 4.00 4.70 4.55 
  - Number of analysts participating 18 18 18 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 1.88 1.90 1.91 1.93 
  - Lowest 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 1.88 1.98 2.08 2.00 
  - Number of analysts participating 18 17 17 
 
Cashflow
Cash flow from operating activities * - Consensus 44,942 51,378 53,399 54,492 
  - Lowest 42,888 49,011 48,209 49,076 
  - Highest 47,365 57,003 62,463 61,050 
  - Number of analysts participating 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 72.9 74.0 71.7 68.5 
  - Lowest 64.9 65.0 62.8 60.0 
  - Highest 75.8 82.5 85.0 75.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 13 13 
              
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 67.8 64.7 63.7 60.3 
  - Lowest 65.4 56.3 54.8 55.0 
  - Highest 71.7 71.0 71.0 65.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 
              
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.98 2.99 2.95 2.93 
  - Lowest 2.80 2.50 2.50 2.30 
  - Highest 3.20 3.33 3.30 3.50 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 10 10 
*) including working capital movement, excluding interest expense (net)
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 07/01/2019
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [02/01/2019]; Barclays [01/11/2018]; Berenberg Bank [02/11/2018]; BoA Merrill Lynch [01/11/2018]; Citigroup [07/01/2019]; Credit Suisse [01/11/2018]; Degroof-Petercam [01/11/2018]; Deutsche Bank [02/11/2018]; Exane BNP Paribas [07/01/2019]; Goldman Sachs [01/11/2018]; HSBC [06/11/2018]; ISI Evercore [17/12/2018]; Jefferies [19/12/2018]; Kepler Cheuvreux [26/11/2018]; Morgan Stanley [02/11/2018]; Oddo BHF [01/11/2018]; RBC Capital Markets [07/01/2019]; Société Générale [02/11/2018] and UBS [17/12/2018]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.