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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' historical consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BELOW IS HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND SHOWS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES AS THEY WERE ON 31/10/2018, THE DAY BEFORE THE LAST QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT. DETAILS OF THE CURRENT CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES WILL BE PROVIDED IN DUE COURSE.
Last update on 31/10/2018
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)RangeQ3 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Integrated Gas - Consensus 2,490 9,755 10,978 10,431 9,800  
  - Lowest 2,231 8,915 8,476 6,526 6,258  
  - Highest 2,975 10,622 15,028 16,268 14,445  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 18 17 16 13  
               
Upstream - Consensus 1,846 7,720 9,582 9,167 7,398  
  - Lowest 1,456 6,586 6,149 4,596 3,010  
  - Highest 2,651 10,146 14,239 15,484 12,122  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 18 17 16 13  
               
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,993 7,283 8,268 9,446 9,634  
  - Lowest 1,650 6,306 6,537 6,943 7,545  
  - Highest 2,415 8,128 9,773 20,004 18,406  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 21 20 19 15  
               
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,418 4,882 5,842 6,913 6,983  
  - Lowest 1,121 3,947 4,287 4,693 5,187  
  - Highest 1,835 5,713 7,437 16,847 15,169  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 20 20 19 15  
               
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 578 2,435 2,426 2,533 2,652  
  - Lowest 450 2,225 1,600 1,600 1,600  
  - Highest 758 2,728 2,984 3,157 3,570  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 20 20 19 15  
               
Operating Income - Consensus 6,302 24,640 28,701 28,785 26,903  
  - Lowest 5,652 23,317 23,611 20,975 21,150  
  - Highest 7,317 27,075 32,908 38,787 36,202  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 21 20 19 15  
               
Corporate - Consensus -382 -1,481 -1,150 -1,122 -1,066  
  - Lowest -450 -1,698 -1,800 -1,816 -2,001  
  - Highest -250 -869  
  - Number of analysts participating 24 20 19 18 15  
               
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -119 -474 -512 -505 -476  
  - Lowest -208 -675 -793 -796 -727  
  - Highest -93 -377 -384 -390 -390  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 21 20 19 15  
               
CCS earnings - Consensus 5,766 22,684 27,264 27,595 25,361  
  - Lowest 5,198 21,256 22,811 18,914 19,356  
  - Highest 6,748 24,863 32,254 36,471 33,701  
  - Number of analysts participating 24 21 20 19 15  
Earnings per shareRangeQ3 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (million shares) - Consensus 8,318 8,297 8,079 7,806 7,520  
  - Lowest 8,187 8,137 7,818 7,366 6,775  
  - Highest 8,376 8,351 8,345 8,345 8,345  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 21 20 19 15  
               
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 0.69 2.74 3.38 3.54 3.38  
  - Lowest 0.62 2.57 2.83 2.48 2.60  
  - Highest 0.82 3.06 4.04 4.67 4.52  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 21 20 19 15  
 
Dividend per ShareRangeQ3 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Dividend per Share - Consensus 0.47 1.88 1.90 1.92 1.92  
  - Lowest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88  
  - Highest 0.47 1.88 1.97 2.07 2.08  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 22 21 20 15  
 
CashflowRangeQ3 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Cash flow from operating activities * - Consensus 44,676 52,966 53,635 52,062  
  - Lowest 39,839 48,982 43,871 44,535  
  - Highest 49,470 60,095 63,292 61,995  
  - Number of analysts participating 20 19 18 15  
 
Price assumptionsRangeQ3 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 73.8 75.4 72.0 66.5  
  - Lowest 69.2 65.0 59.2 60.0  
  - Highest 75.8 82.5 85.0 75.8  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 21 20 15  
               
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 67.7 68.8 66.5 62.1  
  - Lowest 64.5 61.5 56.3 53.0  
  - Highest 68.9 75.0 81.0 72.8  
  - Number of analysts participating 19 18 17 14  
               
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.91 2.86 2.89 2.87  
  - Lowest 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.25  
  - Highest 3.00 3.00 3.30 3.30  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 21 20 15  
         
*) including working capital movement, excluding interest expense (net)
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 31/10/2018
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [02/10/2018]; Barclays [02/10/2018]; Berenberg Bank [02/10/2018]; BoA Merrill Lynch [08/08/2018]; Citigroup [26/07/2018]; Degroof-Petercam [26/07/2018]; Deutsche Bank [31/07/2018]; Exane BNP Paribas [28/08/2018]; Goldman Sachs [26/07/2018]; HSBC [08/08/2018]; ISI Evercore [27/07/2018]; Jefferies [26/07/2018]; Kepler Cheuvreux [02/10/2018]; Oddo BHF [27/07/2018]; RBC Capital Markets [02/10/2018]; Santander [31/08/2018]; Société Générale [27/07/2018] and UBS [02/10/2018]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.