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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' historical consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BELOW IS HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND SHOWS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES AS THEY WERE ON 27/07/2016, THE DAY BEFORE THE LAST QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT. DETAILS OF THE CURRENT CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES WILL BE PROVIDED IN DUE COURSE.
Last update on 27/07/2016
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)RangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Integrated Gas - Consensus 992 4,702 6,974 8,725  
  - Lowest 500 3,526 3,586 5,534  
  - Highest 1,640 6,338 9,811 12,362  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 17 17 17  
             
Upstream - Consensus -566 -1,637 3,906 7,217  
  - Lowest -1,400 -3,825 692 3,346  
  - Highest 115 2,982 8,994 16,420  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 17 17 17  
             
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,990 7,490 7,384 7,320  
  - Lowest 1,404 5,481 4,547 4,638  
  - Highest 2,431 9,376 8,891 8,828  
  - Number of analysts participating 26 19 19 19  
             
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,591 5,854 5,602 5,493  
  - Lowest 979 3,832 2,756 2,855  
  - Highest 2,046 7,687 6,779 6,699  
  - Number of analysts participating 26 19 19 19  
             
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 399 1,636 1,783 1,827  
  - Lowest 241 1,080 1,077 1,065  
  - Highest 549 2,906 3,148 3,203  
  - Number of analysts participating 26 19 19 19  
             
Operating Income - Consensus 2,373 10,182 17,310 21,846  
  - Lowest 1,473 7,084 10,317 11,880  
  - Highest 3,340 17,458 27,439 36,026  
  - Number of analysts participating 27 19 19 19  
             
Corporate - Consensus -161 -621 -854 -827  
  - Lowest -475 -2,439 -3,142 -3,182  
  - Highest 80 309 300 300  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 18 18 18  
             
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -62 -202 -212 -222  
  - Lowest -218 -383 -700 -800  
  - Highest 428 790  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 18 18 18  
             
CCS earnings - Consensus 2,159 9,148 16,162 20,667  
  - Lowest 1,473 4,948 9,692 11,255  
  - Highest 3,136 14,819 26,908 35,495  
  - Number of analysts participating 27 23 23 23  
Earnings per shareRangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Weighted average number of shares (in million) - Consensus 7,938 7,893 8,143 8,151  
  - Lowest 6,394 7,243 7,780 7,541  
  - Highest 8,092 8,160 8,381 8,608  
  - Number of analysts participating 24 23 23 23  
             
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 0.27 1.16 1.99 2.55  
  - Lowest 0.18 0.63 1.18 1.35  
  - Highest 0.43 1.87 3.38 4.71  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 23 23 23  
 
Dividend per ShareRangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Dividend per Share - Consensus 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.89  
  - Lowest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.88  
  - Highest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.94  
  - Number of analysts participating 25 23 23 23  
 
CashflowRangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Net cash from operating activities - Consensus 28,056 40,796 46,610  
  - Lowest 22,768 33,332 36,450  
  - Highest 41,423 52,698 61,655  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 23 23  
 
Price assumptionsRangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 44.5 57.0 65.7  
  - Lowest 35.0 45.0 54.0  
  - Highest 50.0 75.1 82.5  
  - Number of analysts participating 24 24 23  
             
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 43.6 55.9 65.3  
  - Lowest 35.0 45.0 52.0  
  - Highest 48.0 72.6 80.0  
  - Number of analysts participating 18 18 17  
             
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.41 3.03 3.19  
  - Lowest 2.08 2.13 2.13  
  - Highest 2.75 3.65 4.00  
  - Number of analysts participating 24 24 23  
        
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 27/07/2016
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [14/07/2016]; ABN AMRO [29/06/2016]; Barclays [15/07/2016]; BoA Merrill Lynch [15/07/2016]; BMO Capital Markets [26/07/2016]; Canaccord [11/07/2016]; Citigroup [12/07/2016]; Credit Suisse [21/07/2016]; Degroof-Petercam [05/07/2016]; Deutsche Bank [25/07/2016]; Exane BNP Paribas [08/06/2016]; Goldman Sachs [08/07/2016]; Howard Weil [12/07/2016]; HSBC [13/07/2016]; ISI Evercore [19/07/2016]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [21/07/2016]; Jefferies [11/07/2016]; Kepler Cheuvreux [20/07/2016]; Liberum Capital [29/06/2016]; Macquarie [07/07/2016]; Morgan Stanley [12/07/2016]; Oddo&Cie [12/07/2016]; RBC Capital Markets [15/07/2016]; Redburn [06/07/2016]; Santander [20/07/2016]; Simmons & Company International [15/07/2016]; Société Générale [07/07/2016]; Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. [27/07/2016] and UBS [22/07/2016]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.