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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' historical consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BELOW IS HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND SHOWS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES AS THEY WERE ON 01/05/2019, THE DAY BEFORE THE LAST QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT. DETAILS OF THE CURRENT CONSENSUS FORECAST ESTIMATES WILL BE PROVIDED IN DUE COURSE.
Last update on 01/05/2019
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)RangeQ1 2019 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 EFY 2022 E
Integrated Gas - Consensus 2,069 8,827 9,189 9,622 9,962  
  - Lowest 1,391 6,849 7,625 7,242 7,630  
  - Highest 2,477 11,302 11,797 14,541 15,778  
  - Number of analysts participating 20 14 14 11 10  
               
Upstream - Consensus 1,499 6,980 7,721 8,008 8,182  
  - Lowest 1,211 5,217 5,441 4,965 5,713  
  - Highest 1,929 10,237 11,512 11,605 11,369  
  - Number of analysts participating 20 14 14 11 10  
               
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,571 7,790 9,189 9,100 9,136  
  - Lowest 1,310 6,622 7,603 7,968 7,922  
  - Highest 1,915 9,180 11,895 11,701 12,977  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
               
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,171 5,902 7,148 6,884 6,830  
  - Lowest 823 4,980 5,597 5,597 5,597  
  - Highest 1,580 7,629 10,002 9,779 10,997  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 15 11 10  
               
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 398 1,895 2,108 2,304 2,421  
  - Lowest 249 1,400 1,400 1,757 1,980  
  - Highest 745 2,603 2,888 2,846 3,208  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 15 11 10  
               
Operating Income - Consensus 5,114 23,604 25,915 26,277 26,715  
  - Lowest 4,466 20,661 22,973 20,250 19,851  
  - Highest 5,754 27,865 30,498 32,514 33,584  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
               
Corporate - Consensus -457 -1,855 -1,849 -1,724 -1,721  
  - Lowest -730 -2,918 -2,918 -2,700 -2,700  
  - Highest -200 -1,118 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
               
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -113 -495 -523 -552 -558  
  - Lowest -161 -743 -830 -776 -786  
  - Highest -56 -224 -224 -400 -400  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
               
CCS earnings - Consensus 4,544 21,254 23,544 24,002 24,436  
  - Lowest 3,946 18,937 20,661 17,861 17,420  
  - Highest 5,057 25,296 28,147 31,014 32,184  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
Earnings per shareRangeQ1 2019 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 EFY 2022 E
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (million shares) - Consensus 8,194 8,078 7,785 7,557 7,430  
  - Lowest 7,960 7,980 7,646 7,284 6,943  
  - Highest 8,377 8,196 8,047 7,778 7,748  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
               
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 0.55 2.63 3.01 3.18 3.31  
  - Lowest 0.48 2.36 2.62 2.31 2.26  
  - Highest 0.62 3.16 3.68 4.15 4.50  
  - Number of analysts participating 23 16 16 12 11  
 
Dividend per ShareRangeQ1 2019 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 EFY 2022 E
Dividend per Share - Consensus 0.47 1.89 1.89 1.91 1.92  
  - Lowest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88  
  - Highest 0.48 1.94 1.99 1.96 2.00  
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 15 12 11  
 
CashflowRangeQ1 2019 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 EFY 2022 E
Cash flow from operating activities * - Consensus 46,234 50,581 51,087 51,929  
  - Lowest 38,942 45,697 47,234 47,812  
  - Highest 51,928 54,472 56,164 59,149  
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 12 11  
 
Price assumptionsRangeQ1 2019 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 EFY 2022 E
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 66.2 65.5 65.3 65.3  
  - Lowest 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0  
  - Highest 70.7 75.0 80.0 80.0  
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 12 11  
               
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 58.2 59.5 60.0 60.7  
  - Lowest 51.3 54.8 52.0 53.5  
  - Highest 65.4 71.0 72.0 72.0  
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 11 10  
               
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.90 2.88 2.92 2.93  
  - Lowest 2.70 2.70 2.65 2.65  
  - Highest 3.30 3.25 3.32 3.38  
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 12 11  
         
*) including working capital movement, excluding interest expense (net)
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 01/05/2019
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [23/04/2019]; Barclays [11/04/2019]; Berenberg Bank [18/04/2019]; BoA Merrill Lynch [17/04/2019]; Citigroup [18/04/2019]; Cowen and Company [18/04/2019]; Credit Suisse [12/04/2019]; Deutsche Bank [24/04/2019]; Goldman Sachs [10/04/2019]; HSBC [10/04/2019]; ING [23/04/2019]; ISI Evercore [24/04/2019]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [15/04/2019]; Jefferies [17/04/2019]; Macquarie [15/04/2019]; Morgan Stanley [23/04/2019]; Oddo BHF [12/04/2019]; RBC Capital Markets [18/04/2019]; Redburn [24/04/2019]; Santander [10/04/2019]; Simmons & Company International [22/04/2019]; Société Générale [23/04/2019] and UBS [17/04/2019]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.